According to MIC (Market Intelligence Center), an ICT industry research institute based in Taipei, the number of global mobile phone subscribers hit 2.3 billion in 2006, which is expected to climb to 3.3 billion by 2011, for a CAGR (Compound Average Growth Rate) of 7.2%. Thanks to their rapid economic development and large populations, China and India will score higher growth rates during this period. Growth in new subscribers in other emerging markets of Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, however, will gradually decline, as penetration rates in urban regions with more complete telecom infrastructures have reached substantial levels. Meanwhile, due to market saturation, further subscriber growth in Western Europe, North America, and Japan will be very limited. Consequently, the growth rate of global mobile phone subscribers is expected to go down starting in 2007.

The GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) system, including GSM, GPRS (General Packet Radio Service), EDGE (Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution), and WCDMA (Wideband Code Division Multiple Access), will continue to be the mainstream technology in the global market. In upgrading their analog and TDMA (Time Division Multiple Access) systems, most regions embrace GSM systems and many countries, such as Korea, Brazil, and Peru, intend to convert their existing CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) systems to GSM or WCDMA system, in order to rid themselves of CDMA royalties, thereby lowering mobile phone costs and achieving economies of scale.

The GSM Association has mapped out the EMH (Emerging Market Handset) and "3G for All" promotional programs for emerging and mature markets, respectively, to accelerate global mobile phone penetration and 3G subscriber growth. As a result, market share of the GSM system is expected to advance to 84.7% in 2011, from 81.9% in 2006, while that of CDMA standards, including cdmaOne, CDMA2000 1X, and CDMA2000 1x EV-DO (Evolution Data Only), will remain at 14% throughout this period.

In the 3G segment, global WCDMA subscribers reached 112.8 million in 2006, accounting for 4.8% of global mobile phone subscribers. As of the end of 2006, average coverage rate of WCDMA networks had reached approximately 74% in Western Europe. With 120 mobile operators in over 260 countries worldwide having rolled out WCDMA services, there is considerable room for development in this segment. It is forecasted that WCDMA / HSDPA (High-Speed Downlink Packet Access) subscribers will top 618 million by 2011, with a CAGR of 40.5%, and represent 18.7% of global mobile phone subscribers.

Only 42 mobile operators worldwide have embraced CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO technology, boasting 50 million subscribers in 2006, mostly in North America, Latin America, Japan, and Korea. Global CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO subscribers are forecasted to hit 217.4 million by 2011, for a 6.6% market share worldwide. CAGR for CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO subscribers during this period is forecasted to reach 30.1%, lagging behind WCDMA / HSDPA in terms of growth momentum.

TD-SCDMA (Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access) technology, being developed by China, will not begin commercial services until the second half of 2007, and its application is likely to be confined to the Chinese market. Therefore, total TD-SCDMA subscribers are expected to reach only 29 million by 2011, for a global market share of 0.9%.

Thanks to huge subscriber bases and high growth potential of China and India, mobile phone subscribers in the Asia-Pacific region will pick up annually, with annual growth rate higher than in other regions. It is expected that Asia-Pacific will account for 47.9% of global subscribers by 2011, being the only region with CAGR exceeding 10%.

Trailing behind Asia-Pacific in subscriber growth rate are Eastern Europe and Latin America, which are also the regions with most usage of EDGE technology. Due to extensive sizes of the two markets, their mobile operators opted to focus on upgrading of EDGE software and hardware, supplemented with WCDMA base station construction, in order to rapidly enhance network access speed at low costs.

Mobile phone penetration rate already hit 95.8% in Western Europe in 2006, the highest worldwide, prompting many Western European mobile operators, such as Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom (T-Mobile), and Telefonica, to make cross-border deployments, with Vodafone having extended its operations to five regional markets.

Mobile phone penetration rate reaches only 73% in North America, lower than other developed markets, mainly due to the fact that fixed network phone rates are lower than mobile phone rates. Young people aged under 13 are the segment with highest development potential for mobile phone services.

Despite high penetration rates in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, mobile phone penetration rate reached only 26.1% in 2006 in the Asia-Pacific region, as penetration rates in developing countries, such as China, India, and Indonesia, remained low, leaving considerable room for development. The global mobile phone penetration rate is forecasted to climb to 47.8% by 2011, from 35.7% in 2006.

More information can be found in the following MIC report.  Worldwide Mobile Phone Subscriber Forecast, 2004 - 2011